Chapmania, meet Chapprehension

As every Reds fan in the free world knows by now, Aroldis Chapman left today's game after pitching less than two complete innings, complaining of a stiff back.

I had an excellent vantage point, sitting in the front row behind home plate, watching his day unfold. These photos were all taken this afternoon.

After retiring the Colorado Rockies in order in the 6th inning, Chapman struggled with his control and quit using his fastball as much as he previously had in the spring. The fastballs he did throw seemed to have a little less pop than usual.

After the game, Chapman said through his interpreter, as reported by CNati.Com, "I'm not really hurt, it's a problem with my back I've had all week. I was trying to work it out but they took me out just in case."

When I first saw the trainers go out, I thought it might be related to a problem that he seemingly had with a blister or cut on his hand that I'd seen the trainers tend to while Chapman warmed up in his previous start. My photos and post of that can be found here.

Chapman's pitch velocity didn't reach past levels of 100+ mph. Mark Sheldon reports that Chapman recorded no pitch higher than 97 mph today.

Pitching coach, Bryan Price, noted that Chapman was indeed using his off-speed pitches more often than usual. Again, from CNati.Com:

"I didn't think he was attacking the hitters, it was a regular, typical mound visit -- be more aggressive with your fastball," Price said. "He was trying to get guys out with his slider and change-up and not being aggressive with his fastball. I wanted to remind him that he's got a good fastball and to utilize it more and then in the next few pitches we notices he was moving around kind of funky and we didn't want it to get any worse."

Chapman's day started off really well. He dominated the Rockies best hitter, striking out SS Troy Tulowitzki. He then proceeded to retire the next two Rockies on routine plays. Here Tulo swings badly on strike three.

In the seventh inning, Rockies CF Dexter Fowler hit a hard ground ball that Reds SS Drew Sutton couldn't handle. It was scored an error, which I thought was a pretty rough scoring decision, as the ball was really scalded.

John Fay of the Enquirer reports that Dusty Baker said one thing that tipped him off to Chapman's physical troubles is how the Reds new pitcher was walking around the mound. "We saw him walking around the mound. He didn't have the same stuff. We could tell something was wrong. He's just sore, a little tight."

As Chapmania turns to Chapprehension, Reds fans will just have to wait and see if this back problem becomes chronic or just a one-time occurrence. One part of this that troubles me is that Chapman says he has been bothered by the back all week.

John Fay speculates that this may take Chapman out of the running as the fifth starter for the Reds, something I had seen as becoming more and more likely. If that's the case, I really have no idea who Baker and Price will tap to start on April 11.

Batting Second: Cabrera vs. Rolen

The second hitter in the batting order goes to the plate more times than any other hitter on the team except for the leadoff hitter. On average the #2 hitter will have 60 more plate appearances than the #6 hitter, and 90 more than the #8 hitter.

It appears that Dusty Baker intends on having newly-acquired SS, Orlando Cabrera, bat second and 3B Scott Rolen bat 6th. Leaving aside the question of whether the Cabrera signing was wise and whether he should be starting ahead of defensive whiz Paul Janish, should Cabrera be batting second for the Reds?

Let's compare the merits of batting Cabrera second vs. batting Rolen second. Both of these players have long career histories - the "back of their baseball card" as Baker is fond of saying. Cabrera has had over 7200 plate appearances heading into 2010 and Rolen over 7400. Both players are roughly the same age, with Rolen being 6 months younger than Cabrera.

On-Base-Percentage
While the two hitters are relatively close in career batting average, with Cabrera at .275 and Rolen at .284, for on-base-percentage Cabrera has a very low .322 while Rolen is well above league average at .370.

One way to put that into perspective is to point out that Willy Taveras has a career OBP of .321. So, over more than 7000 plate appearances, Orlando Cabrera gets on base at the same rate as Willy Taveras.

Another way to view it is to compare Cabrera and Rolen's rates to the rest of MLB. In 2009, 154 hitters had enough AB to qualify for the batting title. Scott Rolen's OBP of .370 ranked him 64 out of 154. Orlando Cabrera's OBP of .316 ranked him 140 out of 154.

Finally, if you're inclined to look at 2010 Spring Training statistics, Cabrera has an OBP of .303 (with three BB) and Scott Rolen an OBP of .375 (with 6 BB, not counting the two he had today).

Plate Discipline
O-Swing is a statistic that measures the percentage of pitches outside the strike zone at which the player swings. It's a measure of the plate discipline of the batter. Over his career, Cabrera has an O-Swing of 24.3% and Rolen's O-Swing is 19.0%. A clear edge for Rolen.


Power
Since the #2 hitter has more AB than hitters lower in the order, power numbers such as slugging percentage, are an important factor to consider. Over his career, Cabrera has accomplished a .398 SLG, while Rolen has a .498 SLG.

Again, in comparison to the rest of MLB, in 2009, looking at the statistic wOBA which weights OBP for power, Rolen was ranked 49 out of 154 while Cabrera was 140 out of 154.

It's important to note that Scott Rolen has not been the same power hitter since his shoulder surgery in 2005, so his career SLG is misleadingly high. From 2000 to 2004, his slugging percentage was .535, from 2006 to 2010 it was .450. Scott Rolen is clearly not the same power hitter that he was earlier in career, yet Dusty Baker, by batting Rolen in the 5th spot in the lineup apparently continues to treat him as though he is. But even with his reduced post-surgery SLG, he is still more of a power hitter than Cabrera, and by a considerable margin.

In conclusion
These are the reasons that Scott Rolen should bat second for the Reds, not Orlando Cabrera.

(1) Rolen is a better hitter, period. Batting second, instead of sixth, will give him roughly 50-60 more AB.

(2) Rolen will get on base ahead of Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce at a much higher rate than Cabrera.

(3) Batting Rolen second will move Jay Bruce up to the fifth spot in the order where his power is more likely to drive in runs.

Noteworthy people and places

I'm heading to Scottsdale Stadium in a little while to watch the Reds play the Giants. It should be interesting to see how Travis Wood and Mike Leake do today. Usually home teams play their starters, and Travis and Mike are both scheduled to pitch three or four innings. This will be a solid test for their candidacy to be the fifth starter.

Over the past days here in Arizona, I've collected a few pictures of noteworthy people and places and thought this would be a good time to post them, including a restaurant review at the end.

People of interest

A few former Reds have appeared on opposing teams. Former Reds' outfielder Norris Hopper made a short (no pun intended) appearance for the Brewers. Objectively speaking, Hopper has never been a great, or even a good, MLB player. But in the summer of 2007 he did become a Reds fan favorite when the only thing going right for the Reds was Norris Hopper, who seemed to get a hit every time at the plate. In 2007, he had a .371 on base percentage in 305 plate appearances.

This day, playing for the Brewers, Hopper swung at the first pitch in his only AB and he grounded into a double play. He probably should have tried one of his famous push bunts up the first base line.

Josh Hamilton still plays for the Texas Rangers. I saw a few innings of a Rangers-Giants game last week. Josh played left field that game. Hamilton played for the Reds in 2008 and was traded to the Rangers for pitcher Edinson Volquez. The "throw-in" player in that deal was a small, left-handed relief pitcher named Daniel Herrera.

Two former Reds' pitching greats -- Jack Billingham and Jim Maloney -- were in uniform and standing together in the dugout.

Jim Maloney pitched for the Reds from 1960 to 1970. He had a career ERA of 3.19 and threw 74 complete games, including three no-hitters. His best season was 1963 when he earned a 23-7 record, an ERA of 2.77 and struck out 265 batters in 250 innings. In a sense, he was an Aroldis Chapman of his day, considered a hard thrower. His pitches were estimated in the 100 mph range.

Jack Billingham came to the Reds in the blockbuster trade with the Astros that brought Joe Morgan and Cesar Geronimo to Cincinnati and sent Lee May and Tommy Helms, among others, to Houston. Billingham was a cornerstone of the Big Red Machine's pitching staff, pitching for the Reds from 1972 to 1977 and winning 87 games over those six years. In 1973 he threw 293 innings with a 3.04 ERA, 19 wins, 16 complete games (no easy feat with Sparky 'Captain Hook' Anderson as the manager) and seven shutouts. Billingham saved his best for the World Series, where over his 7 appearances he was 2-0 with a microscopic 0.36 ERA.

My seat at Goodyear Ballpark affords me close proximity to the Reds brass. Owner and CEO of the Reds since 2005, Bob Castellini sits a few rows in front of me. He has used his field seats (I'm sure he has a nice suite, too) every game I've attended. He stayed in his ballpark seats all nine innings last night.

Hall of Fame announcer, Marty Brennaman, has watched several games in sections with regular paying customers. Marty has been the voice of the Reds since 1974 when he took over for Al Michaels. He worked side-by-side with Joe Nuxhall for 30 years. Marty's signature call "And this one belongs to the Reds!" began in his second game broadcasting for Cincinnati.

Through his tenure, Marty has called Pete Rose's hit number 4192, Henry Aaron's home run number 714 (which was given up by Jack Billingham), the Reds' 1975, 1976 and 1990 World Series championships, and Tom Browning's perfect game. Other Reds' broadcasters, Chris Welch and Jeff Brantley, have been regular observers at Goodyear on their "off" days. Brantley frequently sits in the first or second row behind home plate scoring the game. Here, Marty is sitting at Goodyear Ballpark with his son Thom, who is also a Reds broadcaster.

Walt Jocketty, the Reds' General Manager, usually watches games from upstairs, but on occasion has ventured down into the cheap seats. Last night he watched the entire game from about 8 rows back behind home plate. A few days ago, against Cleveland, toward the end of the game he watched inconspicuously standing and then sitting among the crowd.

Before working for the Reds, Jocketty was the GM for the St. Louis Cardinals for 13 seasons. Over that time the Cardinals won a World Series and seven NL Central Division Championships.

Places of interest

I've seen a few ballparks in Arizona. Maryvale Baseball Park, the home of the Milwaukee Brewers, sits in a residential area on the outskirts of the city of Phoenix. It was built in 1998 and seats 7,000 people. It was mostly full yesterday in a day game between the Angels and the Brewers. The dominant sense I had at Maryvale was the ever-present smell of fried dough, from their funnel cake booths.

Camelback Ranch is the new home of the Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers. This is the Dodgers inaugural year at Camelback, and the second year for the White Sox. Camelback has a very distinctive southwestern style which I found appealing. The two team administrative offices back up to the outfield fences - the Dodgers in left field, the White Sox in right. Camelback is about 15 minutes northeast from Goodyear Ballpark. It opened in 2009 and seats 13,000 people, which is the largest seating capacity in the Cactus League.

Surprise Stadium is the shared home of the Kansas City Royals and the Texas Rangers. I watched a game between the Rangers and the Giants there last week. It opened in 2003 and seats 10,500 people. Surprise Stadium is about 20 minutes from Goodyear, due north.

UPDATE: The San Francisco Giants play in Scottsdale Stadium, which sits in downtown Scottsdale, just northeast of downtown Phoenix. It opened in 1992 and does have a few touches of old-stadium design - very small seats that face straight ahead, not angled toward home plate. It has a capacity of 12,000 and was completely packed today as the Reds played there.

Goodyear Ballpark, the Reds new Arizona field, also opened in 2009 and seats 10,300.

Among the parks that I have visited in Arizona, Goodyear is the only one that charges for parking. In Florida, the only free baseball parking I experienced was at Disney in Orlando, the home of the Atlanta Braves. But here, parking has been free at Camelback, Surprise and Scottsdale, where I'm headed in a few minutes.


Matt's Big Breakfast

A few weeks ago, Matt's Big Breakfast was featured on the Food Network show "Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives." I've been there twice and the food is simply, utterly, fantastic.

There is nothing big about Matt's, except the breakfast, however. It is a tiny, tiny spot, perhaps seating 35 people. I waited both times I've been there, but it was well worth it.

Matt's features basic breakfast dishes, like eggs, meats, pancakes, a waffle, as well as a few lunch items. It isn't open for dinner. Here you see my first breakfast at Matt's -- an omelet of grilled onions, sausage and cheese, their delicious crispy hash browns (although I liked their home fries better on visit #2), and great toasted wheat bread with local strawberry preserves.

I give Matt's Big Breakfast my highest culinary recommendation.

The most important Reds pitcher in 2010

David "Homer" Bailey, from La Grange, Texas, is the single most important pitcher in the Reds organization for the 2010 season. But you wouldn't have been able to tell that based on what's being reported on the information superhighway.

Aroldis Chapman has a mania. Reds' rookie pitcher Mike Leake has a mini-mania.

Not Homer Bailey. A local article here (Homer's all grown up), a national article there (Homer's glad the spotlight is elsewhere). But virtually nothing about his baseball talent and prospects on the mound.

Don't be fooled by the 23-year-old's mania-free zone, though. No other pitcher on the Reds staff is more likely to see their personal success track as close with the team's trajectory this year than Bailey.

We pretty much know what to expect from veterans Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang. Absent a huge breakthrough in consistency, Johnny Cueto seems likely to duplicate his roughly-.500 record. The other Reds' starting pitcher candidates are very young. Sure, there's a chance that the shooting star of Aroldis Chapman will streak across major league baseball's sky this year, but even with flashes of brilliance, realistically his impact in 2010 is likely to be limited, even if the media frenzy so predictably won't be.

Homer Bailey will be the pivotal difference-maker for the Reds this year.


High school superstar

Homer Bailey was the Reds' first round draft choice in June of 2004. He had just completed a much-heralded high school career, culminating in being named the High School Player of the Year by USA Today. Those accolades were not unwarranted. Homer's high school resumé was replete with accomplishments such as 536 strikeouts in 298 innings, two Texas state championships etc.



A tantalizing glimpse in 2009

After several years of hype followed by disappointment, last fall the Reds got a month-long installment of that Homer Bailey. In his last nine starts of 2009, he recorded a 1.70 ERA and a 6-1 record, while being victimized by two blown saves. His ERA over that period of time was the best in the entire major leagues. I'll say that again: over the last six weeks of 2009, the starting pitcher in the entire MLB with the lowest ERA was the Reds' Homer Bailey.

What happened? From whatever combination of factors, his pitching took an enormous step forward. Homer's fastball velocity consistently registered in the mid-to-high 90s for the first time in his professional career. He developed a split-finger pitch to accompany his fastball and breaking balls. Maybe it was just the added maturity that comes from experience and a dose of humility.


Today's Performance

Homer took the mound this hot afternoon at Goodyear Ballpark against the Cleveland Indians. He pitched reasonably well, allowing a couple of runs over 3.2 innings. Homer flashed moments of brilliance, such as when he struck out former Reds outfielder Austin Kearns with a wicked breaking ball to end the third inning with bases loaded. On the other hand, he pitched with runners on base all four innings, primarily because he wasn't getting his first pitch over for a strike.



Here Homer is warming up before the game, with new Reds pitching coach, Bryan Price, watching intently.


Homer's ready

The conclusion to 2009 left many encouraging signs for Homer's upcoming year. The potential for dominance is clearly there. His high school career is evidence of that. If Homer puts it all together, he'll become a 15-game (or more) winner with an ERA below 3.50. If that happens, the Reds have a great chance not only of finishing above .500 for the first time in nearly a decade, but also to make the post-season -- this year.

Does that put a lot on Homer's broad Texas shoulders? Sure does. But as Homer has recently said himself: "No excuses any more. It's time."

Chapman's day: Blistering and blistering?

Welcome to the latest edition of Chapmania. Cuban rookie pitcher Aroldis Chapman took the mound as a starter for the first time as a Reds player. The game was played at Goodyear Ballpark at 1:00 pm MT against the Milwaukee Brewers.

I was able to take quite a few close up shots and videos of Chapman as he moved through his pre-game routine and three innings of work. I also took some pictures of the trainers attending to something that might have been a blister that Chapman reported to the training staff during his workout. I haven't seen that reported anywhere, yet.

Pre-game Stretching and Long Toss

Chapman begins his pre-game warm up doing a series of strange stretches using the bullpen fence.





Then he moves to a traditional long toss session with game catcher Ramon Hernandez.


Here, he finishes his long toss with Edinson Volquez looking on.


Chapman's Bullpen Session

Chapman then moved to the bullpen, where he prepared the rubber and threw a couple dozen pitches. These photos are from Chapman's bullpen session.





These videos are of a couple of Chapman's bullpen pitches.

A Blistering Finger?

About mid-way through the bullpen session, Chapman alerted his coaches to a potential issue with one of his fingers.

In a few minutes the Reds' trainers came over and looked at it. The guy standing next to me, who had a really close view, said it looked like a small blister.


Apparently the trainers didn't consider it to be anything serious as they didn't give Chapman any treatment and soon the pitcher returned to his bullpen session, showing no adverse effects.

At the end of Chapman's bullpen session he threw a couple pitches with his fingers split apart and a fastball action. Here is a close up of that grip.


UPDATE: Apparently this splitter came as a surprise to the Reds today, according to John Fay.

Chapman's Three In-Game Innings

Chapman took the mound vs. the Brewers. Apparently Milwaukee second baseman Rickie Weeks didn't get the memo on Chapman. The Brewer leadoff hitter greeted the Cuban lefty with a homer deep out of the park in left-centerfield.

After Weeks' homer, Chapman settled down and dominated the Brewers for the rest of his three innings, recording five strikeouts, including one of Milwaukee slugger Ryan Braun.


For an extensive account of Chapman's day, including quotes from Dusty Baker, read Mark Sheldon at MLB.com.

A Blistering Fastball

I'm confident the radar guns showed Chapman reached 100 mph. How do I know this?

Because Jeff Brantley told me so. Brantley, my favorite Reds broadcaster and former major league closer, was sitting with the scouts who were using the radar guns. At the end of the second inning, I noticed as Brantley got someone's attention in the dugout and signaled/mouthed "one-zero-zero" and then, holding up three fingers, mouthed "three times." Again, this was after the second of Chapman's three innings.

Here Chapman leaves the field after his outing, preparing to be greeted by Mike Leake, the other Reds pitcher who has been the subject of spring training mania (at least on this blog).

The Reds play a second game tonight. I'll post my non-Chapman thoughts about both games after the night game is over. In my opinion, Chapman looked great today.