The most important Reds pitcher in 2010

David "Homer" Bailey, from La Grange, Texas, is the single most important pitcher in the Reds organization for the 2010 season. But you wouldn't have been able to tell that based on what's being reported on the information superhighway.

Aroldis Chapman has a mania. Reds' rookie pitcher Mike Leake has a mini-mania.

Not Homer Bailey. A local article here (Homer's all grown up), a national article there (Homer's glad the spotlight is elsewhere). But virtually nothing about his baseball talent and prospects on the mound.

Don't be fooled by the 23-year-old's mania-free zone, though. No other pitcher on the Reds staff is more likely to see their personal success track as close with the team's trajectory this year than Bailey.

We pretty much know what to expect from veterans Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang. Absent a huge breakthrough in consistency, Johnny Cueto seems likely to duplicate his roughly-.500 record. The other Reds' starting pitcher candidates are very young. Sure, there's a chance that the shooting star of Aroldis Chapman will streak across major league baseball's sky this year, but even with flashes of brilliance, realistically his impact in 2010 is likely to be limited, even if the media frenzy so predictably won't be.

Homer Bailey will be the pivotal difference-maker for the Reds this year.


High school superstar

Homer Bailey was the Reds' first round draft choice in June of 2004. He had just completed a much-heralded high school career, culminating in being named the High School Player of the Year by USA Today. Those accolades were not unwarranted. Homer's high school resumé was replete with accomplishments such as 536 strikeouts in 298 innings, two Texas state championships etc.



A tantalizing glimpse in 2009

After several years of hype followed by disappointment, last fall the Reds got a month-long installment of that Homer Bailey. In his last nine starts of 2009, he recorded a 1.70 ERA and a 6-1 record, while being victimized by two blown saves. His ERA over that period of time was the best in the entire major leagues. I'll say that again: over the last six weeks of 2009, the starting pitcher in the entire MLB with the lowest ERA was the Reds' Homer Bailey.

What happened? From whatever combination of factors, his pitching took an enormous step forward. Homer's fastball velocity consistently registered in the mid-to-high 90s for the first time in his professional career. He developed a split-finger pitch to accompany his fastball and breaking balls. Maybe it was just the added maturity that comes from experience and a dose of humility.


Today's Performance

Homer took the mound this hot afternoon at Goodyear Ballpark against the Cleveland Indians. He pitched reasonably well, allowing a couple of runs over 3.2 innings. Homer flashed moments of brilliance, such as when he struck out former Reds outfielder Austin Kearns with a wicked breaking ball to end the third inning with bases loaded. On the other hand, he pitched with runners on base all four innings, primarily because he wasn't getting his first pitch over for a strike.



Here Homer is warming up before the game, with new Reds pitching coach, Bryan Price, watching intently.


Homer's ready

The conclusion to 2009 left many encouraging signs for Homer's upcoming year. The potential for dominance is clearly there. His high school career is evidence of that. If Homer puts it all together, he'll become a 15-game (or more) winner with an ERA below 3.50. If that happens, the Reds have a great chance not only of finishing above .500 for the first time in nearly a decade, but also to make the post-season -- this year.

Does that put a lot on Homer's broad Texas shoulders? Sure does. But as Homer has recently said himself: "No excuses any more. It's time."

Chapman's day: Blistering and blistering?

Welcome to the latest edition of Chapmania. Cuban rookie pitcher Aroldis Chapman took the mound as a starter for the first time as a Reds player. The game was played at Goodyear Ballpark at 1:00 pm MT against the Milwaukee Brewers.

I was able to take quite a few close up shots and videos of Chapman as he moved through his pre-game routine and three innings of work. I also took some pictures of the trainers attending to something that might have been a blister that Chapman reported to the training staff during his workout. I haven't seen that reported anywhere, yet.

Pre-game Stretching and Long Toss

Chapman begins his pre-game warm up doing a series of strange stretches using the bullpen fence.





Then he moves to a traditional long toss session with game catcher Ramon Hernandez.


Here, he finishes his long toss with Edinson Volquez looking on.


Chapman's Bullpen Session

Chapman then moved to the bullpen, where he prepared the rubber and threw a couple dozen pitches. These photos are from Chapman's bullpen session.





These videos are of a couple of Chapman's bullpen pitches.

A Blistering Finger?

About mid-way through the bullpen session, Chapman alerted his coaches to a potential issue with one of his fingers.

In a few minutes the Reds' trainers came over and looked at it. The guy standing next to me, who had a really close view, said it looked like a small blister.


Apparently the trainers didn't consider it to be anything serious as they didn't give Chapman any treatment and soon the pitcher returned to his bullpen session, showing no adverse effects.

At the end of Chapman's bullpen session he threw a couple pitches with his fingers split apart and a fastball action. Here is a close up of that grip.


UPDATE: Apparently this splitter came as a surprise to the Reds today, according to John Fay.

Chapman's Three In-Game Innings

Chapman took the mound vs. the Brewers. Apparently Milwaukee second baseman Rickie Weeks didn't get the memo on Chapman. The Brewer leadoff hitter greeted the Cuban lefty with a homer deep out of the park in left-centerfield.

After Weeks' homer, Chapman settled down and dominated the Brewers for the rest of his three innings, recording five strikeouts, including one of Milwaukee slugger Ryan Braun.


For an extensive account of Chapman's day, including quotes from Dusty Baker, read Mark Sheldon at MLB.com.

A Blistering Fastball

I'm confident the radar guns showed Chapman reached 100 mph. How do I know this?

Because Jeff Brantley told me so. Brantley, my favorite Reds broadcaster and former major league closer, was sitting with the scouts who were using the radar guns. At the end of the second inning, I noticed as Brantley got someone's attention in the dugout and signaled/mouthed "one-zero-zero" and then, holding up three fingers, mouthed "three times." Again, this was after the second of Chapman's three innings.

Here Chapman leaves the field after his outing, preparing to be greeted by Mike Leake, the other Reds pitcher who has been the subject of spring training mania (at least on this blog).

The Reds play a second game tonight. I'll post my non-Chapman thoughts about both games after the night game is over. In my opinion, Chapman looked great today.

Dickerson vs. Stubbs: Two battles, not one

Chris Dickerson's 4-4 performance yesterday, raising his OBP to .455 should have caught Dusty Baker's attention, finally. Dickerson's home run that capped off the Reds 10-run first inning flew entirely out of Goodyear Ballpark and landed somewhere near the Siesta Key, I think. Throw in a double, a triple and a couple of stolen bases, and Chris Dickerson is having the best spring offensively of any Reds player. He needs to play.

Drew Stubbs has struggled in Goodyear, although today against the D-Backs in Tucson he doubled and tripled, scoring two runs and knocking in two others. So perhaps Stubbs is finally warming up. Good. Stubbs demonstrated an excellent upside in his call-up last fall, although he has yet to prove he can sustain that production over the course of several months or longer.

Dickerson's recent standout performance has caused many in the media and blogosphere to focus on the competition on the Reds as one between Dickerson and Stubbs for the centerfield job. See Mark Sheldon, John Fay, C Trent Rosecrans at CNati, and Chad Dotson at Redleg Nation for four examples of this framing.

That's certainly an important aspect of the duel. But it's not the only one.

A separate contest between the two Reds, namely the battle to see who gets to lead off the batting order, should also be taking place. But is it?

Much has been made of manager Dusty Baker's tendency to bat his CF first, regardless of OBP. One need look no further than the number of AB he gave to Corey Patterson and Willy Taveras the past two years as evidence of that. Last year, inspired by the 1-2 lineup punch of Taveras and shortstop Alex Gonzalez, sportswriter Joe Posnanski referred tongue-in-cheek to Dusty's disdain for factoring in OBP as "something awe inspiring."

Yet even this spring, when Baker clearly does have more than one viable leadoff hitter, he has made comments that would lead one to believe that determining his leadoff hitter is simply a matter of identifying whomever is playing CF.

"Right now you've got the No. 1 spot, you've got Stubbs and if he's not playing, Dickerson slides right in there without me tearing up my lineup."
-- Dusty Baker, 2.28.10

Baker could have said, "Right now you've got the No 1 spot, you've got Stubbs, but if Dickerson is doing a better job of hitting and getting on base, he could slide right in there." Reading Baker's actual statement, one couldn't be faulted for coming to the conclusion that defensive position is more important to Baker in determining who leads off than other factors such as who makes fewer outs. Remember that the leadoff hitter bats more times than anyone else on the team.

So what happens this year in the circumstance where both Stubbs and Dickerson are playing at the same time, who then should bat leadoff?

This is not an academic question. Dickerson and Stubbs are each double-plus defenders in the outfield, and both bring great offensive potential to the team. One could easily see a situation where they both deserve to start - with Chris Dickerson playing LF and Stubbs in CF, especially against right-handed pitchers. Johnny Gomes is another candidate for LF, as are a handful of others - Frazier, Heisey, Balentien and now, apparently Juan Francisco. But if the Reds want to emphasize preventing runs with their defense, Dickerson and Stubbs may both play. They may even turn out to be the two best hitters of that group.

So then, who leads off? While the battle for CF may be a close one, the competition to bat leadoff is not. If (and that is a mighty big two-letter word) a fair and open-minded competition is taking place, then Chris Dickerson's past and current performance should have easily, yes easily, won him the first spot in the order.

Why? Well, he gets on base at a much higher rate than Drew Stubbs. This is primarily due to Dickerson's greater skill at taking walks. Batting averages can be misleading in this regard. Last year, Stubbs (.267) and Dickerson (.275) had reasonably close BA. But when factoring in walks, their production levels diverged, with Dickerson (.370) almost .050 points higher in OBP than Stubbs (.323).

Dickerson's excellent walk rate of around 13% has remained steady throughout his career in the major and minor leagues, so there is every reason to believe he can sustain it. Stubbs' walk rate has steadily declined as he has progressed through the Reds organization -- 14% in A+, 10.5% in AA/AAA, and down to 7.7% for the Reds in 2009.

What difference does this make? Over 600 AB, a margin of .050 in OBP equates to 30 extra times on base for the likes of Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Scott Rolen and Brandon Phillips. It also increases the number of times those hitters get up to bat over the course of a season. That's not a trivial factor.

Batting Dickerson in the leadoff spot and moving Stubbs down in the order, say to 6th or 7th, would also reduce the pressure on Stubbs, still a relatively inexperienced player.

It would be great news for the Reds if the Drew Stubbs of 2010 and beyond was the same as the autumn 2009 model. I hope he is. But it still wouldn't make him a leadoff hitter anymore than Brandon Phillips is.

Leake-mania

Have you heard? The Reds have a 22-year-old pitcher with no major league experience, in his first major league spring training camp, who has so far turned in a world-class performance.

Have you joined the Mania? In five innings, he's allowed no runs, earned or otherwise, given up only 2 hits and 1 walk, and has recorded six strikeouts.

He's from Cuba, right? Wait, no ... San Diego, what? But I thought ...

That's right, Mike Leake, the Reds #1 draft pick in 2009, who is less than three months older than Aroldis Chapman, has been dominant so far this spring.


College Baseball Achievements
Leake was among the most accomplished pitchers in college baseball. As a junior last year at Arizona State University, he compiled a 16-1 record with a 1.71 ERA. He (not Stephen Strasburg) was named 2009 National Player of the Year by the American Baseball Coaches Association and was also a first-team All-American and Academic All-American.

"That little dude can pitch." -- Dusty Baker
Based on what I saw in Goodyear yesterday, I couldn't agree more with Dusty Baker's assessment. Mike Leake can flat out bring it. And I can't wait to see him pitching in a Reds uniform in Great American Ballpark.

One of the first things I noticed was how quickly Leake works on the mound. Several times he had received the pitch signal and was waiting for the hitter to get in the batter's box. He took the throw back from the catcher, looked right in for the indication, and was ready to deliver. He struck out four batters in two innings against the Oakland A's.

In his previous outing, he faced the Angels in Tempe, where he played college ball at ASU. He also pitched two scoreless innings in that outing.

“It was kind of fun facing some major leaguers. I’m finally where I had a goal to be – I’m not quite there – it was nice to face some people I’ve been watching on TV for a long time."

“I was hoping it was their big guys. That’s what I need to face, so I know what I’m up against when I get to that point. It’s kind of like a dream come true right now.”

Leake had his good stuff working.

“My sinker was actually working a little too much for me,” Leake said. “I didn’t get the feel until the second inning. It was working well. I was trying to mix up.”

His only quibble with his outing was his walk of Bobby Abreu.

“I don’t like walking people,” he said. “That’s my pet peeve. It was good coming back and getting the groundball.”

Other scouting reports
ESPN baseball analyst Keith Law had this to say about Leake in his preview of the Top 100 prospects in baseball (Leake was #72).

Leake pitched at 88-92 mph in college but will probably be more 87-90 working every fifth day. But that two-seamer has a hard, late tailing action that should get ground balls and even break some bats. He has a standard assortment of off-speed pitches, including a short two-planer curveball with a break that appears to accelerate as it approaches the batter, a hard changeup around 80-81 mph with some tail, and a slider with good tilt just below that velocity. He's a serious strike-thrower who commands his fastball and works fast, which may give hitters less time to adjust to the way he's changing speeds and locations on them.

Can he make the team?
When Dusty Baker was asked this question recently, he said:

“I don’t know. This is Leake’s first spring training period. It’s Wood’s first major-league camp. Let’s let them pitch first. And then we’ll see what’s happening. Just go pitch, son. Don’t worry about making the team. Don’t worry about not making the team. Don’t worry about nothing.”

Realistically, with Harang, Arroyo, Cueto and Bailey already penciled in for the rotation, the odds for Leake right now are high. His main competition is Matt Maloney. Chad Dotson, at Redleg Nation, makes a compelling case that Maloney has already "won" the #5 job. And, of course, there is Aroldis Chapman. It's a great luxury for the Reds that they can keep Leake in the minors for a while, and let him get used to professional baseball.

But he's no "prospect." Leake is polished. He has won 40 games in college already, and passed the Arizona Fall League test with ease (1.37 ERA in 5 starts). He's not your typical young pitcher who needs a lot of seasoning. He's very close to being ready to help the Reds.

Leake, Chapman and Travis Wood sure make it a lot more comforting to contemplate a post-Harang, post-Arroyo world in 2011.

Observations for 3.15

By now you already know that the Reds scored 10 runs in the first inning yesterday before Oakland starting pitcher Ben Sheets recorded an out. They won the game 13-5. I'll post separate items on Chris Dickerson and Mike Leake later today.

Some additional things about yesterday's game that you might not know if you weren't in Goodyear:

Joey Votto is making this look easy

In the first inning, with the score still 0-0, Votto lined a single to left-centerfield as easily as if it were batting practice. Two of his hits yesterday were also to the opposite field. He's obviously seeing it really well and his swing is simple and relaxed.

On top of his hitting exploits, for the second day in a row, he made the best defensive play of the game for the Reds. In the fifth inning he snared a line drive that was over his head and destined for the rightfield corner. He also made a nice play on a ground ball in the hole, tossing it strongly to covering pitcher Mike Lincoln -- a play Votto practices dozens of times every day.

It's a thrill to go to the park just to watch JV play. I don't think an MVP-type season is out of the question.

The Reds broadcasters were in the house

Even though it was an off day for live radio and TV coverage, at least three members of the Reds broadcast team were seated in my section yesterday, taking in the Reds pounding of the A's. Chris Welch was sitting with Jeff Brantley. The Hall of Famer was there, too.


I'd slow down the Juan Francisco fanfare

Yes, he's hit some blasts this spring. I can see what the excitement is all about. But I'd still keep it classified under the heading of "potential" until Francisco can demonstrate more patience at the plate. I saw his laser-shot in the "B" game on Sunday morning against the Indians. It rocketed over the right field fence before you knew what had happened.

BUT, in general, he is still a liability when at bat. He swings at everything, including a pitch yesterday that was at-or-above eye level. The major league pitchers won't give him anything to hit. He joined the hit parade against Ben Sheets yesterday with a single to left, but otherwise struck out twice, badly.

Travis Wood looked more than fine

I guess it was a little unrealistic to expect Travis Wood to go the entire season without giving up a run. After retiring three batters in the 5th inning on 6 pitches, Wood lost his focus for a while in the 6th inning, giving up two walks, a single to Adam Rosales, and his first run of the spring.

Wood returned for a dominant 7th inning, and struck out four A's over the course of his three innings. There is a lot to be encouraged about with Travis Wood.

CoCo Cordero, same old, same old (in the good way)

Cordero came in to pitch the fourth inning, giving up a couple of hits before getting down to business and retiring the A's without giving up a run.

Remember the past two years how Cordero seems to be less effective when a save is not on the line? Well, imagine how he must have felt entering the game in the fourth inning with the score Reds 10, Oakland 0. It was comforting to see his unusual "look-in" to the pitcher yesterday. The bullpen should be another strength for the Reds again this year.

Adam Rosales doesn't look right in green and gold

Part of the collateral damage that was the Reds disastrous signing of Willy Taveras in 2009 was that we had to ship out Adam Rosales in a trade to get rid of Taveras. (Not to mention having to take on Aaron Miles, look at the next item ... )

Rosales apparently has a shot at the regular SS job with the A's, which he wouldn't have had with the Reds. In fact, the Reds' signing of Orlando Cabrera, made Rosales somewhat expendable. Yesterday, Rosales was 3-3 for the A's and knocked in and scored a run. No surprise that he ran the bases hard.

I'm afraid we have Miles and miles to go

Aaron Miles continues to struggle at the plate, going hitless again yesterday. The 10-run first inning would have been cut somewhat short had not Mark Ellis dropped Miles' weak ground ball right at the second base bag. That was a sure-fire double play. His other two AB produced similar dribbling ground outs. Further, Miles is just average in the field. Yesterday, he fielded a pop-up way over his head, clearly Chris Dickerson's ball in CF. I suppose you do things like that in order to make the team.

Dusty Baker is sure giving Miles every opportunity, but there is just no good reason to keep him on the roster. The Reds have other options. Paul Janish is much better in the field. Drew Sutton is better in the field and at the plate. Throw in Miguel Cairo and Chris Burke, who also could fill the utility IF role. Todd Frazier is the Reds top minor league hitting prospect and he plays the infield and outfield.

But unfortunately, that doesn't mean Miles won't make the trip back to Cincinnati in April. He has a $2+ million contract the Reds would have to eat, and he played 2B on Walt Jocketty's 2006 St. Louis Cardinals world championship team. If Miles does make the team, I suspect it won't be Baker's call. He doesn't seem all that pleased watching Miles.

What the Mariners saw in Wladimir Balentien

Wladimir Balentien was signed out of Curacao at the age of 15 by the Seattle Mariners. He excelled at every level of their minor league organization, but struggled with their major league club. He was traded to the Reds for Robert Manual in 2009. In 110 AB with the Reds last year he had a solid OBP of .352 to go along with 3 homers, seven doubles and a triple.

But it's obvious that he's getting squeezed out of the Reds crowded OF this year. Johnny Gomes seems destined to play the role of RH slugger. Dusty Baker is making limited opportunities for Balentien to earn his keep.

Yesterday, however, Balentien came up in the 6th inning with Miguel Cairo on base and knocked the first pitch he saw over the right field fence. I guess if he plays well enough the rest of spring the Reds might be able to trade him.